Association of meteorological factors and atmospheric particulate matter with the incidence of pneumonia: an ecological study

초록

Objectives: Inconsistent results have been found between pneumonia and meteorological factors. We aimed to identify principal meteorological factors associated with pneumonia, and to estimate the effect size and lag time. Methods: This was nationwide population-based study used a healthcare claims database merged with a weather database in eight metropolitan cities in Korea. We applied a stepwise approach using the Granger causality test and generalized additive model to elucidate the association between weekly pneumonia incidence (WPI) and meteorological factors/air pollutants (MFAP). Impulse response function was used to examine the time lag. Results: In total, 2 011 424 cases of pneumonia were identified from 2007 to 2017. Among MFAP, diurnal temperature range (DTR), humidity and particulate matter <= 2.5 mm in diameter (PM2.5) showed statistically significant associations with WPI (p < 0.001 for all 3 MFAPs). The association of DTR and WPI showed an inverted U pattern for bacterial and unspecified pneumonia, whereas for viral pneumonia, WPI increased gradually in a more linear manner with DTR and no substantial decline. Humidity showed a consistent pattern in all three pneumonia categories. WPI steeply increased up to 10 to 20 mu g/m(3) of PM2.5 but did not show a further increase in higher concentrations. On the basis of the result, we examined the effect of MFAP in different lag times up to 3 weeks. Conclusions: DTR, humidity and PM2.5 were identified as MFAP most closely associated with WPI. With the model, we were able to visualize the effectetime association of MFAP and WPI. (C) 2020 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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